13 小時前
We are seeing equities hit ANOTHER all time high as the credit cycle is in full swing
This continues to confirm the view I have been laying out about the amount of money in the system
This is pushing us closer toward the macro endgame as positioning risk into FOMC builds 🧵
Many people are saying the rate cut this week is WHY equities are rallying, but this is completely wrong.
We are already pricing a 100% probability of a cut for BOTH meetings this year.
Notice the VIX was actually rising intraday as ES was bidding:
The implication is that we are seeing call skew actually rise as traders are paying a higher premium for being long
This rise in call skew is overlapping with a massive volatility crush in FX vol and rate volatility
So we are seeing the market actually price MORE certainty around the macro changes taking place. Why? Because inflation risk is actually falling
When this occurs, we are decreasing the hurdles for the Fed to cut aggressively and injecting more certainty (and thereby capital) into the market
And all of my credit cycle models have been screaming bullish since April and May:
2025/10/18
This was the first thread that I did on being bullish back in April. I’ve literally posted threads almost every day updating this view since April.
I’ve been aggressively long since this period of time and have continued to run short term trades to the upside.
We’re down from all time highs a few percent after a massive run. If my strategies go neutral, I always publish it in a report for paid subscribers on the website.
I always put in the work to lay out the flows and logic for everything.
Fade all the noise and lock in even more. This is your time
As we move through FOMC, we are going to have a lot more tensions to manage. I recorded a full video breakdown of these tensions and how they relate to equities and rates here: YT LINK:
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