CRCL的三阶段演化路径(含估值模型):
阶段1:储备收益期(Reserve Era)
商业实质:赚利差
业务逻辑:USDC发行量 × 美债收益
对标公司:Money Market Fund / 银行同业存款
投资逻辑:赚利息,利润取决于利率与发行规模
估值模型:
使用 DCF(现金流折现)或股息贴现模型(Dividend Discount Model),
以“利息收益 - 运营成本”为核心现金流来源。
估值区间参考:10–15× P/E,对应市值约为发行量的 0.3–0.8 倍。
阶段2:支付网络期(Network Era)
商业实质:赚结算费
业务逻辑:USDC作为跨境清算与链上支付工具
对标公司:Visa / Stripe / PayPal
投资逻辑:赚取交易费(Take Rate),估值取决于交易量(TPV)与网络效应扩张
估值模型:
使用 EV/Sales 或 EV/TPV 模型,核心锚点为交易总额与费率
估值区间参考:约发行量的 1–3 倍(取决于TPV倍数与利润率弹性)。
阶段3:结算层基础设施期(Settlement Era)
商业实质:赚生态复合收益
业务逻辑:USDC成为Web3美元结算层(API、清算、信用、身份等)
对标公司:Visa + AWS / Ethereum Layer-0
投资逻辑:估值取决于生态粘性、网络效应与平台锁定度
估值模型:
采用 混合DCF + 网络效应模型(Metcalfe’s Law + Platform DCF)。
估值区间参考:15–25× EV/Sales 等效倍数,
对应市值约为发行量的 2–5 倍(取决于网络粘性与平台规模)。
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