interesting experiment :
- in july 2025, uniswap foundation ran its first CFM in partnership with @butterygg
- four lending protocols—Compound, Euler, Morpho, and Venus— participated in the week-long market.
- each team submitted a public application that specified how much TVL they expected to generate if they were given $100k, as well as how much TVL they expected to generate if they were not awarded funding.
- forecasters were then able to trade in each of the project’s markets and drive the price towards a TVL number that they believed the project would actually achieve
insights :
- Insider participation had more influence than anticipated, raising questions about credible neutrality"
- Forecasting complexity (TVL projections) limited participation and confidence among forecasters
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