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OpenAI or Anthropic: How to Think About Both Pre-IPO Plays
Two AI titans. Two very different theses. And you can trade both before either hits public markets.
OpenAI is the scale play. 900M weekly active users, $2B/month in revenue, a Q4 IPO targeting $852B.
The ChatGPT brand is embedded in consumer habit at a depth that genuinely looks like a moat. Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank anchored the latest raise. That's not a speculative bet; that's a structural position.
Anthropic is the quality play. Just agreed terms on a $30B raise at a $900B valuation, overtaking OpenAI on paper.
Revenue is at $30B annualized and tracking toward $50B by mid-2026. The enterprise concentration is the point: Claude clients embed deeply, churn slowly, and pay a premium for model reliability.
Then, just yesterday: Karpathy. Andrej Karpathy, OpenAI co-founder and one of the most credible researchers in the field, chose Anthropic over returning to his former home. He's leading Claude pre-training. This isn't just a headline. When someone of his calibre makes that call publicly, it tells you something about where the serious R&D momentum is sitting right now.
My read: these are legitimately different bets. OpenAI if you believe user scale becomes the durable moat. Anthropic if you believe enterprise stickiness and frontier talent win at this stage. Pre-IPO perpetual contracts for both are live on OKX now.
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