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The primary catalyst for this market sell-off is the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data. The oil shock is directly impacting operational costs, and with the conflict under a controlled escalation, pressure will persist as long as crude remains elevated. This is the dominant macro headwind.
The AI rally remains structurally robust, but it cannot defy the gravity of rising energy costs. The semiconductor sector has been signaling overvaluation for a while, making this corrective phase a logical, healthy development rather than a surprise.
For $BTC, a daily close below 79k opens the door to a retest of the 73.7k support zone. I am not initiating new longs until we reach that level. Patience is key.
On my portfolio moves:
Crypto: I aggressively sold $ONDO, but kept my core position. My focus is now on $HYPE and $TAO, with a small ONDO residual.
US Equities: I entered $LEU in two tranches. I want to see a broader US market correction before adding a third. Currently in observation mode.
$FSLR is up 20%. I will trim 30% of the position at the $249 level.
$ISRG (cost basis $460): Holding strong. No fundamental reason to sell; it is a core, long-term quality holding. No panic.
Copper: My position (cost $4.30) continues. Demand is structurally increasing. My target is around $8, though uncertain. I also shared $SARKY (cost $25) on Twitter; it hit $31 today, and I plan to exit near $35.
Geopolitical Angle: Trump is in China with top CEOs. A deal could be a massive positive catalyst for $NVDA and $TSLA. However, until the oil crisis is resolved, I remain net flat on equities and crypto. I advocate waiting for either an oil price collapse or a healthy market correction to deploy fresh capital.
Apologies for the text-based update; I am outside Istanbul with limited broadcasting gear. A like on this tweet helps visibility. Thank you for reading.
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