大魔的财富之路

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5.18 Monday • 20:30 US May NY Fed Manufacturing Index • Night session: US Treasury 4.62%, Crude Oil 108, Gold 4580 5.19 Tuesday (Key Day) • 20:00 White House Iran Meeting (Major Event) • 22:00 US April Existing Home Sales 5.20 Wednesday • 20:30 US April CPI (Core Inflation) • After market: Nvidia Earnings Report 5.21 Thursday • 02:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes • 20:30 US May PMI Preliminary 5.22–24 Friday–Sunday • Middle East situation continues to escalate • Weekend: G7 Finance Ministers Meeting (Possible discussion on oil prices/inflation) #超级事件周 $BTC $ETH $LAB

1. Macro Overview (2026-05-18) • Geopolitics: The US and Israel plan to resume strikes on Iran (as early as next week), Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices strengthen, gold acts as a safe haven, BTC/ETH under pressure. • Federal Reserve: April CPI at 3.8% exceeds expectations, 2026 rate cut expectations basically zero, 10-year US Treasury yield breaks 4.59%, US dollar strengthens, risk assets under pressure. • Market: BTC repeatedly falls back under strong resistance at 78000; ETH breaks 2100 and dips to 2085, overall bearish dominance with weak rebounds. 2. BTC Key Levels and Strategy • Resistance: 78000 (strong resistance), 78500 (secondary resistance) • Support: 75000 (extreme), 76500 (short-term) • Operation (mainly shorting at highs) ◦ Short near 78000, add shorts at 78500 ◦ Target: 76500; Stop loss: above 79200 3. ETH Key Levels and Strategy • Resistance: 2140, 2165 • Support: 2080 (strong support), 2050 (bottom line) • Operation (mainly shorting at highs) ◦ Short near 2140, add shorts at 2165 ◦ Target: 2080; Stop loss: above 2200 4. Intraday Thoughts and Risk Control • Daytime viewed as oversold recovery, limited rebound space, no chasing longs. • Hourly chart shows clear bearish volume expansion, rebounds are shorting opportunities. • Positioning: light positions in batches, strict stop loss; if volume breaks through 78500/2165, exit promptly and wait. 5. Summary in One Sentence Geopolitical and high interest rate dual pressure, BTC/ETH weakness hard to change, mainly short on rebounds, strictly follow key levels. #在OKX交易美股：周末不停盘 $BTC $ETH $LAB

This morning's "waterfall washout" priced in geopolitical risks + lingering inflation + collapse of rate cut expectations + emerging market sell-off all at once, and panic is still spreading. 1. Middle East Powder Keg: US and Israel to take action against Iran • Evening of May 17: Netanyahu spoke with Trump, discussing restarting military strikes on Iran, planning a joint airstrike. • Trump’s tough talk: Iran "will have nothing left if it doesn’t act"; White House meeting on May 19 finalized military options. • Market interpretation: Risk in the Strait of Hormuz surged, oil prices jumped, inflation expectations rose again, and safe-haven sentiment maxed out. 2. Inflation Data Exploded: Fed Rate Cuts Basically Unlikely • April CPI year-on-year 3.8% (highest since May 2023), core inflation stubborn. • Market pricing: Probability of rate cuts in 2026 only 1%, probability of 25bp hike in December over 30%. • Logic chain: Middle East conflict → energy price rise → inflation rebound → Fed forced to maintain high rates longer, possibly hike. 3. South Korean Stock Market Crashes First: Circuit Breaker Triggered, Panic Spreads • Morning of May 18: KOSPI index plunged over 5%, triggering a 5-minute pause in algorithmic trading. • Direct triggers: US-Israel military action on Iran + surge in US Treasury yields + foreign capital panic selling. • Underlying vulnerabilities: ◦ High foreign capital share, semiconductor weight too large (Samsung + SK Hynix about 30% of index). ◦ Algorithmic trading sell-off amplifies volatility, creating a "drop → liquidation → further drop" loop. • Current status: Decline narrowed, but panic has spread to Japan, South Korea, and other Asian emerging markets. 4. Summary in One Sentence Geopolitical risks push inflation, inflation locks in high rates, high rates crush emerging markets, today is just the beginning, volatility will continue to rise #沃什接掌Fed：权力交接现分歧 $BTC $ETH $LAB

Short-term sentiment usually builds up step by step. In the early stages, you can still buy the dip, but later you have to start thinking about taking profits. After several consecutive days of gains, the risk is always greater than imagined $BTC $ETH $LAB

Sad and hard to say #以色列备战：谈判陷入僵局

1. Risk control comes first, stop losses decisively. Exit decisively when the trigger point is reached; never hold on with false hope. Timely stop losses on small losses are far better than being passively stuck in deep losses. 2. Stop after consecutive losses, take a timely break. Immediately cease operations after five consecutive trading losses. Do not force trades in a chaotic market trend; calmly rest, review, and re-enter when the opportunity arises. 3. Secure profits, protect your gains. Paper profits are just numbers; only realized gains count as actual profit. Withdraw promptly when profit targets are met to safeguard profits and stabilize your principal capital. #超级事件周 $BTC $ETH

To put it simply about the current market: Small rises lure you to chase, small drops scare you into selling. A few points up and you panic about missing out, a few points down and you rush to bottom-fish, your emotions always driven by the market. The common problem for retail investors never changes: rushing to get in during rises for fear of missing out, hesitating to buy during drops for fear of being trapped, wavering back and forth causing internal conflict. Big players stay calm and composed, thriving on volatile markets. Repeated spikes and dips shake out traders, those chasing highs get trapped, those bottom-fishing get deeply stuck, both sides get hit. Everyone thinks they can read the trend and make guaranteed profits, only to get harshly slapped by the market. The most frustrating thing now isn’t rapid losses, but the boiling frog effect—always giving you hope of breaking even soon, yet never letting you escape, the longer you endure, the more passive you become. Keep your mindset steady and control your actions, don’t chase recklessly or bottom-fish blindly, only by enduring the volatility can you hold onto profits. #超级事件周 $BTC $ETH

6 Practical Trading Mindsets in the Crypto Space: Mastering One Can Save You Tens of Thousands, Understanding Three Can Easily Outperform Most Retail Traders 1. Rapid surges followed by slow declines indicate a main force's shakeout and accumulation phase; do not panic and stop-loss out. True market tops always show a volume surge followed by a cliff-like drop. 2. After a sharp market drop, a slight and slow rebound is a trap set by the main force to lure buyers and offload holdings; it is never a good bottom-buying opportunity. Avoid subjective guesses and blind entries. 3. High-level range volume oscillations indicate intense capital battles in the market and still room for upward movement; once volume suddenly shrinks and the market turns sluggish at high levels, it signals a major downturn warning—exit immediately. 4. Single volume spikes at low levels are often false rallies to lure buyers; only long-term low-level sideways consolidation combined with sustained volume breakthroughs signal genuine main force positioning and accumulation. 5. Trading volume directly reflects overall market sentiment. The core of crypto trading is controlling market sentiment: low volume means quiet trading and capital hesitation, while high volume indicates capital inflow and market activity. 6. Letting go of attachment to holdings is the top trading mindset. Do not greedily chase upward profits, do not fear short-term drops, stay out with no clear trading opportunities, and wait for precise signals before following the trend. The crypto market never lacks profit opportunities; the hardest part is controlling trading desires and accurately analyzing the market. Most retail traders lose because of blind following, chasing highs, and panic selling with frequent trades. Master volume-price trends and stabilize your trading mindset—that is the core key to long-term stable profits in the market. #超级事件周 $BTC $ETH $DOGE

All the smooth luck in the world comes from long-term perseverance. Those seemingly fruitless times are actually silently accumulating strength. Day after day of steady cultivation is paving the way for the future; The tough lows endured with grit are quietly shaping a better self. Never easily deny yourself, nor lose hope and give up just because results are not immediately visible. $BTC $ETH

The harshest truth in the crypto world: market opportunities never miss, but most people ultimately can't hold on until the right moment arrives. The bull market hasn't officially started yet, but many have already been trading frequently, exhausting their principal. Remember the core trading truth: strictly following trading discipline far outweighs blindly gambling on luck. Only by steadily holding your position until the end can you calmly secure low-priced chips in the bull market and wait for the market to take off. $BTC $ETH #超级事件周