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#US April CPI recorded 3.8%, exceeding expectations Saudi crude oil production has fallen to its lowest level since 1990, mainly due to the Iran war's impact on energy transportation in the Persian Gulf and precise strikes by Iranian proxies on Saudi facilities, combined with a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, directly triggering a global supply crisis. 1. Core Data (April 2026, OPEC Monthly Report) Saudi production: 6.768 million barrels/day, a sharp month-on-month drop of 958,000 barrels/day, the lowest since 1990 (pre-war about 10.4 million barrels/day). OPEC total production: 18.983 million barrels/day, a month-on-month decrease of 1.727 million barrels/day, the lowest since 2000. Other heavily affected areas: Kuwait (-561,000 barrels/day), Iraq (-291,000 barrels/day), Iran (-211,000 barrels/day). 2. Three Direct Causes of the Plunge Strait of Hormuz “death blockade” Iran blocks the strait, causing a 94% drop in transit volume; Saudi eastern oil ports are nearly paralyzed, with 30% of crude unable to be shipped. Although there are east-west pipelines (Red Sea export), the capacity limit is only 5.9 million barrels/day, far from enough to absorb production capacity, leaving 1.1-1.6 million barrels/day idle. Precise bombings of Saudi facilities by Iranian proxies Houthi forces + Iranian drones launched consecutive attacks: Ras Tanura refinery, east-west pipelines, Manifa/Khurais oil fields were bombed. Direct loss of 600,000 barrels/day production capacity, pipeline transport reduced by 700,000 barrels/day, worsening the situation. OPEC+ production increase plan completely fails Originally planned to increase production by 206,000 barrels/day from April (Saudi +62,000 barrels/day), but the war caused a reverse plunge, completely reversing market expectations [__LINK_ICON]. 3. Chain Reactions on Oil Prices/Inflation Oil prices: severe supply-demand imbalance, $120/barrel is the floor, with a high probability of hitting $150/barrel. Global inflation: energy costs soar, US CPI breaks 6% again, Trump's price stability goal completely fails, election pressure skyrockets. Saudi finances: production plunges 30%, although oil prices rise, total revenue declines year-on-year, putting severe pressure on the economy. 4. Iran's Strategic Objectives (Precise Strikes on Key Targets) Strangle the US inflation lifeline, forcing Trump to lift sanctions and seek peace. Destroy Saudi oil export capacity, weaken its regional hegemony, and consolidate Iran's influence in the Middle East. Use very low-cost means (drones + missiles) to gain very high returns (global oil price surge, US internal turmoil). 5. Follow-up Forecast (May-June) Short term (1 month): production difficult to recover, oil prices maintain $120-$140, global inflation worsens further. Medium term (3 months): if the war continues, Saudi production may fall below 6 million barrels/day, oil prices may hit $150-$180, global economic recession risk soars. In summary: The sharp drop in Saudi production is a precise hit by Iran's "oil weapon," completely restructuring the global energy landscape, with high oil prices and high inflation becoming long-term.

What tactical easing measures will Iran take in the face of maximum pressure? In response to the US maximum pressure, Iran's tactical easing list (only superficial cooling, absolutely no strategic concessions, maintaining the regime's bottom line, forcing the US to ease sanctions) 1. Oil and shipping level: controlled concessions, no complete upheaval - Proactively control the intensity in the Strait of Hormuz - No full blockade, no large-scale attacks on oil tankers, reduce frequency of ship attacks, only sporadic deterrence; maintain normal crude oil shipping to avoid runaway oil prices and prevent the US from having a pretext for comprehensive military strikes. - Secretly allow allies to slightly reduce resistance intensity - Restrain Houthis and Iraqi militias from saturated attacks on US military bases and Red Sea routes, shifting from "high-frequency fierce attacks" to "low-frequency symbolic counterattacks," creating an illusion of de-escalation. - Keep crude oil exports low-key and stable - Do not proactively cut off oil supplies to China and South Asia, maintain covert oil export channels to preserve fiscal lifelines and avoid direct internal economic collapse. 2. Nuclear issue level: flexible braking, no hard derailment - Suspend expansion of high-enriched uranium enrichment - Temporarily do not upgrade capacity for uranium enriched above 60%, slow down nuclear facility expansion pace, giving Europe and the US a "sign of inflation easing and willingness to negotiate." - Limited restoration of some IAEA nuclear inspections - Allow limited return of UN nuclear inspectors to some facilities, not completely closing diplomatic negotiation windows, avoiding being labeled as "openly pursuing nuclear weapons" as a pretext for war. - Declare no intention to develop nuclear weapons - Officially reiterate nuclear policy bottom line: only peaceful nuclear energy, no nuclear bombs, softening public opinion and weakening the US maximum pressure's moral justification. 3. Diplomacy and public opinion level: posture of weakness, safeguarding substantive interests - Accept third-party mediation, agree to indirect talks - No direct bilateral talks with the US, accept Qatar, Oman, Pakistan as intermediaries, use "willingness to dialogue" to soothe markets and ease inflation expectations. - Release some foreign prisoners, slight goodwill gestures - Small-scale release of unrelated Western civilians imprisoned, as a goodwill card to reduce Western public opinion heat and ease unilateral isolation pressure. - Proactively declare "no intention for full-scale war" - Officially repeatedly state no intention to escalate conflict, desire regional peace, shifting the "war provocation" blame to the US and Israel. 4. Military proxies level: reduce intensity, preserve existence - Restrain Hezbollah and Syrian militias - Reduce large-scale conflicts on the Lebanon-Israel border, avoid regional full-scale war, prevent the US from using chaos as a pretext to directly airstrike Iran mainland. - Only conduct targeted counterattacks, no expansion of the front - Respond to US provocations with precise small-scale retaliation, no proactive escalation, keep conflict at "low-intensity tug-of-war," avoid triggering full-scale war red lines. 5. Core essence summary All of Iran's tactical easing follows three iron rules: - Never remove the anti-US founding bottom line - Never give up the three major trump cards: nuclear development, missiles, regional proxies - Never make unilateral concessions first; the US must first ease sanctions and loosen blockades Easing is only a strategic retreat to advance, buying time, stabilizing oil prices, exhausting the US election, bearing inflation pressure, not seeking peace or surrender.

Will Iran seek peace under extreme pressure? Conclusion: Iran will absolutely not seek unconditional peace or surrender; it will only make limited tactical compromises, never strategic submission, and will resist to the end (latest stance as of May 2026). 1. Four core reasons why Iran refuses to seek peace Political lifeline: bowing down = regime collapse The foundation of the Islamic Revolution is anti-American defiance; seeking peace with the U.S. means the collapse of revolutionary legitimacy, hardliners stepping down, domestic regime turmoil, and no retreat for the top leadership. Having suffered betrayal and heavy losses from the U.S., Iran will never make the first concession After complying with the Iran nuclear deal, the U.S. unilaterally tore it up and intensified sanctions; Iran believes that compromising first means being endlessly exploited and never having sanctions lifted. Iran only accepts the U.S. fulfilling its commitments first, then Iran will make concessions. Holding lethal leverage, not afraid of extreme pressure Controlling the Strait of Hormuz, blockade = oil price surge, U.S. inflation explosion, Trump election collapse Proxy armed forces across the Middle East (Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias) continuously wear down U.S. forces Ballistic missiles + drone saturation strikes cover all U.S. bases in the Middle East[] The U.S. has a time disadvantage, Iran can endure With the Trump election approaching, high oil prices + high inflation = rapid vote loss; the longer it drags on, the more passive the U.S. becomes; Iran fights on home soil, enduring blockade long-term with strong resilience. 2. Iran will only do: tactical easing, never strategic peace Iran firmly rejects (red lines) No giving up nuclear rights, no destroying ballistic missiles No disbanding regional resistance forces, no relinquishing sovereignty over Hormuz No acceptance of temporary ceasefire, no unilateral opening of the strait Absolutely no unconditional surrender, no recognition of U.S. hegemonic terms[__LINK_ICON] Iran is willing to make limited concessions (in exchange for survival) Cooperate in controlling strait shipping, no full blockade of the route Temporarily slow down high-level uranium enrichment, cooperate with inspections Restrain proxies to reduce attack intensity, avoid full-scale war Accept third-party indirect talks, on condition: U.S. lifts blockade within 30 days, eases oil sanctions, unfreezes overseas assets[] 3. Current latest confrontation (May 10-13) Iran completely rejects Trump's ceasefire plan, saying acceptance equals surrender and peace-seeking Iran's tough demands: U.S. compensates war damages + fully lifts sanctions + unfreezes assets + guarantees no further military action before peace talks Trump directly vetoed: completely unacceptable, continues military blockade + extreme pressure[] 4. Summary in one sentence U.S. extreme pressure cannot break Iran; it will only force Iran to retaliate against U.S. inflation and elections using oil + proxies + the strait; Iran will never surrender or seek peace, only engage in reciprocal diplomatic exchanges based on sanctions relief and sovereignty security, leading to a long-term stalemate and attrition.

#美国4月CPI录得3.8%，超出预期 #沃什确认5月15日接任美联储 High oil prices, soaring inflation—will Trump seek peace with Iran to stabilize prices? Conclusion: Trump will not make a genuine “peace” with Iran (i.e., abandon core demands and lift major sanctions), but will pursue tactical “easing” to stabilize oil prices short-term, curb inflation, secure votes, and maintain political face and base[]. 1. Current high pressure: oil prices and inflation both surge, political pressure off the charts Oil prices: Brent crude breaks $104/barrel, WTI near $99; Strait of Hormuz shipping obstructed, affecting one-third of global seaborne oil, high risk of supply gap[]. Inflation: US April PPI annual rate 6% (new high since Dec 2022), core inflation sticky; gasoline prices surge directly hitting voters, Trump’s economic approval plummets, midterm elections under pressure. Trump’s Achilles’ heel: high oil prices = high inflation = lost votes; but “real peace” with Iran = weakness + betrayal of Israel + alienating Republican hawks + responsibility for war failure. 2. Three absolute bottom lines: no real peace No lifting of core sanctions: will not cancel major sanctions on Iranian oil exports, finance, or Revolutionary Guard, nor unfreeze massive Iranian overseas assets[]. No abandoning maximum pressure framework: insists Iran must first abandon nuclear program, stop supporting proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis), and cease threatening Israel before further talks; absolutely rejects Iran’s preconditions of “US troop withdrawal, lifting all sanctions, war reparations”[]. No sacrifice of Israeli security: Iran’s demands to “stop Lebanon conflict and abandon military support” are impossible[]. 3. Actions Trump will take: “fake peace, real price stabilization” (latest May developments) Verbal cooling + limited ceasefire: April announced “indefinite ceasefire extension,” May rejected Iran’s proposal (called it “garbage document”) but avoids full-scale war restart and keeps negotiation channels open, in exchange for Iran not attacking US troops or fully blocking the strait, restoring some shipping, short-term oil price pressure[]. Release SPR + suspend fuel tax: authorized release of 172 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserve, coordinated with IEA collective release; on May 11 explicitly considering suspending federal fuel tax to directly lower domestic prices and appease voters—bypassing Iran as first choice for price stability[]. Softened diplomatic posture + third-party mediation: agreed to indirect talks via Pakistan and others, expressed willingness to reach agreement but rejected Iran’s core demands, insisting “Iran must make concessions first”[]. Delay tactics: prolong negotiation cycle, use “ongoing consultations” to stabilize market expectations while maintaining high-pressure sanctions and military deterrence. 4. Iran’s hardline stance: no room for compromise, no basis for “peace” Iran’s latest demands: US must fully withdraw troops, lift all sanctions, pay war reparations, recognize sovereignty over Strait of Hormuz, and stop supporting Israeli strikes on Hezbollah before nuclear talks; no strategic concessions, structural contradictions irreconcilable. 5. Summary in one sentence Trump will use a combination of **“verbal easing + limited ceasefire + SPR release + fuel tax cut + negotiation delay” to stabilize oil prices short-term, curb inflation, and secure votes; but will never truly make peace on sanctions, nuclear abandonment, or Israeli security—US-Iran structural confrontation remains unchanged.**

#美国4月CPI录得3.8%，超出预期 #沃什确认5月15日接任美联储 Against the backdrop of April's PPI annual rate unexpectedly soaring to 6%, far exceeding expectations, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is facing a triple challenge of "inflation rebound + political pressure + growth concerns." Considering his personal stance and the current Fed framework, his most likely approach is: no rate cuts in the short term, a hawkish tone, accelerated balance sheet reduction, re-evaluation of inflation indicators, strengthened expectation management, while drawing clear lines with the White House on trade and fiscal matters. 1. Understanding the current situation (why it's tricky) Data shock: April PPI annual rate at 6% (expected 4.9%, previous 4.4%), the highest since December 2022; core PPI also exceeded expectations, indicating upstream cost pressures continue to transmit downstream. Warsh's dilemma: If cutting rates too early: inflation expectations become unanchored, PPI → CPI spiral upward, repeating 2022's mistakes. If aggressively raising rates/maintaining high rates long-term: commercial real estate and highly leveraged companies face pressure, recession risk rises, directly conflicting with Trump's "rate cuts to boost growth" demands. His baseline: inflation hawk + balance sheet reduction supporter + emphasizes Fed independence, opposes QE normalization, advocates "balance sheet reduction first, rate cuts second." 2. Warsh's optimal response combination (three steps) 1. Monetary policy: hold rates steady, intensify balance sheet reduction (core) Maintain benchmark rates unchanged (3.5%–3.75%): clearly state "inflation is not stable, conditions for rate cuts are not met," resist White House pressure for cuts; dot plot lowers expected rate cuts for the year (e.g., from 2 cuts to 1 or 0). Accelerate balance sheet reduction (QT): raise monthly cap from about $60 billion to $80–100 billion, focusing on reducing long-term Treasuries and MBS, directly withdrawing liquidity, raising long-term rates, suppressing upstream capital expenditure and pricing power—this is Warsh's core argument for "balance sheet reduction replacing rate hikes" [(CICC Wealth)]. Operational logic: he believes "inflation is a monetary phenomenon," excess liquidity is the main cause; balance sheet reduction hits money supply more directly than rate hikes, while avoiding short-term rate spikes that hurt employment. 2. Inflation framework: re-evaluate indicators, focus on core (avoid noise) Promote "trimmed mean PCE/core PPI": downplay overall PPI/CPI, emphasize "trend inflation" excluding temporary supply shocks like energy, food, tariffs; define tariff-driven price increases as "geopolitical noise," not tightening monetary policy because of it. Revamp inflation model: upon taking office, advance "billion-level price data project," introduce AI and high-frequency data to improve real-time tracking of upstream cost transmission and supply chain bottlenecks, reducing lagging misjudgments. Purpose: provide data basis for "not raising rates due to short-term PPI spikes," while stabilizing long-term inflation expectations (anchoring 2% target). 3. Expectation management + political isolation: tough stance, reject fiscal monetization Public hawkish messaging: emphasize "inflation hurts the poor, Fed's primary duty is price stability," willing to sacrifice short-term growth to curb inflation; downplay dot plot and forward guidance, adopt "data-dependent, no preset path" brief communication to reduce market misjudgments. Draw clear lines with White House: explicitly refuse to pay for Trump's tariff policies—the inflation caused by tariffs is the responsibility of Treasury/trade policy, Fed will not punish the entire economy through rate hikes; also oppose fiscal deficit monetization, reject large-scale bond purchases to finance government. Market communication: signal "high rates maintained longer, balance sheet reduction intensified," guide market to lower rate cut expectations, adjust asset prices (especially long bonds and growth stocks), preemptively absorb inflation risk premium. 3. Key risks and fallback plans (just in case) Risk 1: core PPI continues rising → inflation unanchored Fallback: pause balance sheet reduction, restart moderate rate hikes (25bp each), clearly prioritize "inflation out of control over growth." Risk 2: rapid employment deterioration (unemployment >4.5%) → recession Fallback: keep rates unchanged, slow balance sheet reduction, emphasize "flexible response to employment under stable core inflation." Risk 3: White House pressure for rate cuts + political attacks Fallback: repeatedly emphasize Fed independence, use legal and institutional barriers to resist interference, publicly disagree with Trump if necessary. 4. One-sentence summary of Warsh's "breakthrough strategy" Tighten monetary policy with "no rate cuts + fast balance sheet reduction," filter noise by "re-evaluating inflation indicators," stabilize expectations and preserve independence through "tough stance + political isolation," walking a tightrope between curbing inflation and preventing recession.

US April PPI year-on-year increased by 6.0%, the highest since December 2022, expected to increase by 4.9%, previous value revised from 4.0% to 4.3%; April PPI month-on-month increased by 1.4%, the highest since March 2022, expected to increase by 0.5%, previous value revised from 0.50% to 0.7%. US April core PPI year-on-year increased by 5.2%, expected to increase by 4.3%, previous value increased by 3.8%.

Analysis: 4.67 trillion yen "voting with their feet," Japanese capital accelerates selling of U.S. Treasuries! In Q1 2026, Japanese investors net sold 4.67 trillion yen (approximately $29.6 billion) of U.S. Treasuries and other dollar bonds, marking the largest single-quarter sell-off in nearly four years; essentially, Japan is "voting with their feet" to save the yen and control inflation by withdrawing from dollar assets.[] 1. What are the data? Time: January–March 2026 (Q1)[] Scale: Net sell of 4.67 trillion yen (≈$29.6 billion), highest since Q2 2022[] Structure: Net sell of 2.2 trillion yen in March alone, two consecutive months of reduction[] Identity: Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries (holdings exceed $1.2 trillion), its moves directly affect U.S. Treasury pricing 2. Why sell? (Three layers of pressure) 1️⃣ Yen collapse, forced market intervention (direct cause) From April to May 2026, USD/JPY approached 160, a 30-year low Yen plummeting → imported inflation (Japan imports 95% of its crude oil) → soaring prices, real wages decline Japan has no room to raise interest rates: government debt exceeds 240% of GDP, a 1% rate hike would increase annual interest by 10 trillion yen, risking fiscal collapse The only way: sell U.S. Treasuries → exchange for dollars → buy yen → support exchange rate, intervention scale nearly 10 trillion yen in April–May 2️⃣ U.S.-Japan interest rate differential inversion, carry trade reversal (core driver) Fed rates at 3.5%–3.75%, Japan rates at 0%–0.75%, interest rate gap continues to widen Previously: borrow low-interest yen → buy high-interest U.S. Treasuries, $6 trillion yen carry trade was prevalent Now: Japanese inflation + yen depreciation → carry trade unprofitable, institutions close U.S. Treasury positions, convert back to yen 3️⃣ Rising U.S. Treasury risk, active risk aversion (underlying reason) U.S. debt exceeds $36 trillion, interest payments account for 30% of fiscal revenue, debt sustainability questioned Fed rate cut expectations delayed, U.S. Treasury yields rise, prices fall, unrealized losses on holdings expand[] 3. What are the impacts? (Chain reactions) On the U.S.: U.S. Treasury yields soar, financing costs rise; U.S. Treasury Secretary urgently visits Japan to pressure "stop selling U.S. Treasuries, change to rate hikes" On Japan: short-term yen stabilization (160 → 155), but foreign reserves deplete, long-term structural dependence on the dollar remains On the world: dollar credit loosens, de-dollarization accelerates; global asset pricing anchor (U.S. Treasury yields) moves up, stock and bond market volatility increases 4. Summary in one sentence The 4.67 trillion yen sell-off is Japan's passive "voting with their feet" on dollar assets amid the deadlock of "yen depreciation → runaway inflation → fiscal inability to raise rates," and is also a key step in global de-dollarization.

Interpreting “News Trader: 3.8% Inflation Means Rate Hike? Don’t Rush, There’s a ‘Statistical Trap’ Inside” US April CPI year-on-year is 3.8%, core CPI 2.8%, and the market instantly priced in “the Fed might restart rate hikes.” But many traders are shouting: don’t rush, there’s a clear statistical trap here, actual inflation isn’t that strong. Below is a breakdown of the core logic of this article "News Trader: 3.8% Inflation Means Rate Hike? Don’t Rush, There’s a ‘Statistical Trap’ Inside" (combined with Jin10 / Wall Street mainstream interpretations, as of 2026-05-13): 1. The most critical trap: Housing item is “mechanically high,” a one-time large disturbance The biggest driver of April CPI is housing (Shelter): Month-on-month: +0.6%, nearly double the previous value Contributes over 40% to overall CPI But traders point out this is a statistical adjustment, not a real price increase: In October last year, the US government shutdown prevented BLS from normally collecting rent data, so a temporarily underestimated model was used. In April this year, a one-time catch-up adjustment was made to compensate for the “underestimated rents” over the past six months, which raised core CPI by about 0.1–0.15 percentage points at once. In other words: within the 3.8%, part is a “catch-up,” not the real inflation for April alone. 2. Energy is a “geopolitical one-time shock,” not an endogenous trend April energy month-on-month **+5.4%, year-on-year +28.4%**, directly pushing overall CPI to 3.8%. Main reason: escalation of Middle East conflict, Iran-Israel tensions pushing oil prices up, a supply-side sudden shock, not US domestic overheating. Historical pattern: energy price hikes from geopolitical conflicts have weak transmission and poor persistence; the Fed usually “sees through” and won’t hike rates because of this. 3. Core inflation is “averaged out,” real stickiness isn’t that strong Official core CPI (excluding food and energy): 2.8%. But traders look at trimmed mean / median CPI (excluding the most extreme price changes, better reflecting “general prices”): Cleveland Fed trimmed mean: 3.0% (year-on-year) Median CPI: ≈3.0% Still looks high, but key points: Core goods (used cars, appliances, clothing): zero inflation, even deflation. True stickiness only in housing + some services (car insurance, medical), and housing has statistical distortion. In short: inflation is not “broad-based across all categories,” but pushed up by a few items + statistical adjustments. 4. Market overreacted: mistaking “one-time shocks” for “trend restarts” Current market pricing: 2026 rate hike probability: 31% (new high) Rate cut expectations pushed directly to 2027 But traders’ reminder is straightforward: Within the 3.8%, there are statistical adjustments, geopolitical oil prices, housing weight distortions—not purely “economic overheating + inflation out of control.” Chasing a stronger dollar and shorting gold now is like treating short-term noise as a long-term trend, easily to be “slapped in the face” by tonight’s PPI and subsequent data. 5. How does tonight’s PPI fit this logic? (20:30) If the “statistical trap” holds, PPI should show: Overall PPI: driven by energy, year-on-year relatively high (≈4.7%–4.9%) Core PPI (excluding energy/food/trade): weak (≈4.0%–4.2%), reflecting no broad overheating on the production side → If core PPI is below expectations, it will reinforce the judgment that “CPI is statistical + energy noise, not a trend,” possibly causing the dollar to fall and gold to rebound. Trader’s conclusion (core of original text): 3.8% inflation ≠ rate hike. At least 0.3–0.5 percentage points come from: Housing statistical one-time catch-up Middle East conflict pushing energy prices Weight and extreme value distortions Real endogenous inflation is more like 2.5%–3.0%, slowly declining, not out of control.

Tracking the Middle East Situation in the US-Iran Conflict ① Iran 1. Iran has filed a lawsuit with an international arbitration body over US actions in the "12-Day War." 2. According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran conducted military exercises in Tehran Province. 3. According to The New York Times: The latest assessment shows that Iran still maintains operational capability at 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that Iran's military strength is far greater than what Trump claimed. ② United States 1. US Secretary of Defense: The Iran ceasefire agreement remains valid. 2. The US plans to use renaming to circumvent the war authorization time limit issue. 3. Trump says stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons is "just a matter of time." 4. The US offers a $15 million bounty to disrupt the funding network of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. 5. US Department of Defense: The cost of war with Iran has risen to about $29 billion and may increase further. 6. Trump claims to have 100% control over Iran's nuclear fallout, asserting Iran will "100%" abandon nuclear weapons. 7. US media: Trump is considering resuming military operations against Iran; US officials question Pakistan's efficiency in relaying messages. ③ Israel 1. The US Ambassador to Israel says Israel has deployed the "Iron Dome" in the UAE. 2. The Israel Defense Forces say they intercepted a drone launched from the east. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. The UK will dispatch drones, fighter jets, and warships to participate in the Hormuz operation. 2. The US military has rerouted 65 commercial ships, causing 4 vessels to be unable to operate. 3. An oil tanker carrying Iraqi crude oil stopped sailing after approaching the US military deployment area. 4. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Trump is confident the Strait of Hormuz will open soon. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Iran offers the US a "ticket" to nuclear talks, including asset unfreezing and recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Trump: When negotiating with Iran, I do not consider the financial situation of the American people; I do not consider anyone. ⑥ Other Situations 1. A 4.6 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Tehran area of Iran. 2. Reuters: Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran have reached an energy transportation agreement. 3. According to Western and Iranian officials, Saudi Arabia previously launched multiple undisclosed attacks on Iran. 4. The Iranian Foreign Ministry refutes Kuwait's statement that Tehran plans to take "hostile actions" against the Gulf country.

What has Trump been busy with in the past 24 hours? Trump has been mainly focused on four things: finalizing the China visit, erupting over the Iran issue, preparing for the Middle East trip, and rallying on social media, with a very high activity density. 1. Official announcement and China visit preparations (core event) Morning of May 11 (Beijing time): China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially announced Trump's visit to China from May 13 to 15[]. The White House confirmed simultaneously, with the team urgently finalizing the itinerary, security, and trade list (focusing on tariffs, rare earths, agricultural products, and energy). All day on the 11th: Convened national security and trade teams to finalize the China visit agenda list and finalize possible joint statement points; held phone calls with core aides to assess the risks of China-US, Middle East, and Russia-Ukraine linkages. 2. Hardline stance on Iran issue (most explosive public opinion point) May 11: Iran submitted a formal response to the US ceasefire proposal; Trump posted 3 posts on Truth Social, angrily calling Iran's response "completely unacceptable," "a piece of scrap paper," and warned "military options are not ruled out." Simultaneously: intensified financial and energy sanctions on Iran and deployed more patrol aircraft in the Middle East, showing a tough posture. 3. Final sprint for the Middle East trip to three countries (starting May 13) May 11–12: finalized details for visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE from May 13 to 16[]. Core goals: Saudi Arabia: finalize $1 trillion investment, oil/dollar agreement, major arms sales[]. Qatar: advance order of 100 Boeing passenger planes, base renewal[]. UAE: AI/chip cooperation, Gulf security framework. Morning of the 12th: phone call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS to confirm reception standards and signing list[]. 4. Social media rallying + interviews (continuous control of the narrative) About 12 tweets/posts within 24 hours: Praising the US economy, stock market, employment data; Criticizing the Federal Reserve, inflation, media "fake news"; Previewing the China and Middle East visits, claiming to "bring back historic agreements"[]. Evening of the 11th: interviewed by Fox News, discussing Iran, China-US, Russia-Ukraine, 2028 election, stating "If Putin is willing, I can meet in Turkey to discuss Russia-Ukraine ceasefire." 5. Other minor matters Reviewed federal personnel nominations (including ambassadors and minister-level); Received briefings on border security and immigration policies; Private dinner at the White House in the evening, inviting key donors and core allies to "brief" on the China and Middle East trips. In summary: In the past 24 hours, Trump has been finalizing the China visit, issuing tough words on Iran, preparing to secure big deals in the Middle East, while frequently posting on social media and controlling the narrative rhythm throughout.