朱老师区块链

2 national blockchain key R&D core members, 3,000 projects in 10 years, popular science column.

2KFollowing

1.5Kfollowers

Feed

This round is not a retail bull market, but an institution-led "short squeeze". Today, let's talk about the recent market and observations! To get straight to the conclusion: this round is an institution-led bear trap! First, let's review previous views. In the article on February 13, it was mentioned that Bitcoin had 5 consecutive monthly red candles, which is rare in history. Statistics show that 5 consecutive monthly red candles rank second in history. When this happens, even if it’s not the absolute bottom, it’s at least a secondary bottom! It’s a very good stage for positioning, and the gradual improvement over the past two months has confirmed this. Of course, many still believe this is just a rebound within a bear market, still bearish, still waiting for BTC at 30k-40k, especially the four-year cycle believers! Actually, in my January 14 article, I discussed the dilemma players face with the four-year cycle failing. Bitcoin has long been dominated or gradually dominated by institutions, so the four-year cycle theory no longer applies; you can’t keep trying the same old approach! I think I’ve said this many times: first, the super bull market expected in November-December 2025 did not come; second, we are watching this current rise, which has already reached 80k, yet some still don’t believe it. When it hits 90k, maybe some still won’t believe it. Because four-year cycle believers think the real bull market will start after October, but I’m putting the conclusion out now: October might be the turning point, heading into a bear market if the Fed doesn’t cut rates. Currently, that seems very likely (inflation is very severe)! There are many macro uncertainties ahead, such as tech stock earnings, Trump’s midterm elections, and Powell’s policies. So it’s not certain October will be bad, but judging by timing and the way the US stock market is rising, it probably can’t last more than half a year without a correction! Now, about the recent market: the US stock market started a super bull run from the end of March, climbing steadily with almost no pullbacks. Many say the US stock market will correct, but historically, whenever it drops sharply once, it quickly rebounds strongly with almost no pullbacks in between, making you regret not getting in every day! Looking at Bitcoin, its trend is quite similar to the US stock market, rising steadily since March with almost no pullbacks, but overall performance is weaker than the US stock market. The US stock market rises 8 days and pulls back 1 day, while Bitcoin might rise 5 days and pull back 3 days. Also, the US stock market has hit new highs, while Bitcoin is still at 80k. I think big money prefers US stocks first because they are more certain, while Bitcoin is a risk asset. Within Bitcoin players, many are still retail investors; institutions might only hold about 30%. I haven’t found the latest data, but in the older (January 2024) address distribution, institutions held 3.6% + 3.9% + 2.7% = 10%. With the ETF approval and two years passing, this number must have increased a lot! So structurally, it’s clear why Bitcoin’s performance lags behind the US stock market: most retail investors still don’t realize the bull market has already started. Many retail investors are still shorting, even though institutions keep buying. From the structure above, retail still dominates. If retail joined forces, Bitcoin would have taken off long ago. Retail still watches candlesticks, for example, around 75k, the upper range of the consolidation zone, they short or wait. At 80k, a reversal line appears, so they short again. Then at 82k, it hits the MA200, the bull-bear dividing line. Many people rely on indicators. But Bitcoin is still strengthening. Whether 75k or 80k, it hasn’t been a tough breakthrough; it easily breaks through, usually testing once and then passing. In the past two days, many have been talking about an M top, but yesterday it was pulled back up. Many say it’s due to the passage of the Clear Act, but how much can this act influence? At most one day. Yesterday, the US stock market also rose well, so Bitcoin is just following the US stock market. I actually think the "whales" are deliberately setting traps to make you lose chips on this upward path! I’ve been watching candlesticks for a long time, like 1H, 4H, daily charts, but I can clearly tell you it’s useless. If your macro judgment is wrong and you get stuck in micro structures, you’ll miss a lot! #美伊局势：峰会联合表态施压 $BTC $ETH $DOGE